Retrofits

Building Decarbonization

Situation

A commercial building portfolio uses 6,000 MWh per year and has a science-based emissions target. The cheapest abatement — efficiency retrofits — runs out first. Heat pumps close the bigger gap but depend on contractor availability. Green power can bridge the rest, at a higher cost per ton.

Decision

Which mix meets the service requirement and emissions cap at the lowest cost without exceeding annual budget or installation capacity?

How we modeled it

Energy demand is the source and each supply or abatement option is a path to demand satisfied. Efficiency reduces served demand, heat pumps and solar are capacity-limited physical retrofits, and grid or green power covers remaining load at different carbon and cost rates. Constraints cap annual spend, emissions, heat-pump capacity, solar capacity, and efficiency potential.

What the model shows

Portfolio under current limitsEfficiency + heat pumps + bridge green power

Minimum cost to target$1.08M/year

Timing riskHeat-pump delays push abatement above $180/tCO₂

Active limits

Efficiency retrofits exhausted
Annual budget 87% used

What this shows

Efficiency covers the lower-cost reductions first, electrification closes the remaining gap, and timing determines the cost of the last reductions.

Every quarter the team waits on heat pumps, the cost of the remaining 38% gap rises.

Starting electrification now locks in $180 per ton of CO₂. Waiting raises that number.

Green power can bridge the gap, but only while contractor capacity catches up.

Open this model