Building Decarbonization

Commercial building portfolio with 6,000 MWh/year energy demand and science-based emissions targets, but limited capital and contractor capacity for retrofits.

Decision logic

Assemble the retrofit mix that hits the target at the lowest cost under rollout, budget, and contractor limits.

Decision question

Which retrofit portfolio hits the emissions target at the lowest cost under the rollout limits we have?

Model output

Recommended portfolioEfficiency + heat pumps + bridge green power

Minimum cost to target$1.08M/year

Rollout riskHeat-pump delays push abatement above $180/tCO₂

Active limits

Efficiency retrofits exhausted
Annual budget 87% used

Key insight

Efficiency does the cheap early work, electrification closes the hard remainder, and timing determines how expensive the last tons become.

Waiting on heat pumps raises the cost of the remaining 38% gap every quarter.

Starting electrification now locks in $180/tCO₂; waiting raises that number each quarter.

Green power can bridge the gap, but only while contractor capacity catches up.

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